{
  "schema_version": "1.1",
  "id": "mckinsey-genai-2-6-to-4-4-trillion-a-year",
  "slug": "mckinsey-genai-2-6-to-4-4-trillion-a-year",
  "url": "https://groundedkit.com/claims/mckinsey-genai-2-6-to-4-4-trillion-a-year/",
  "api_url": "https://groundedkit.com/api/claims/mckinsey-genai-2-6-to-4-4-trillion-a-year.json",
  "claim": "Generative AI could add $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion a year to the global economy (McKinsey)",
  "commonly_cited_as": "\"Generative AI will add $4.4 trillion a year\"",
  "verdict": "verified",
  "verdict_definition": "Primary source found; it says the same thing, the scope matches, and it is reasonably current.",
  "confidence": "high",
  "rating": {
    "value": 5,
    "best": 5,
    "worst": 1
  },
  "origin": {
    "publisher": "McKinsey & Company",
    "title": "The economic potential of generative AI: The next productivity frontier (June 14, 2023)",
    "year": "2023"
  },
  "quote": "Our latest research estimates that generative AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually across the 63 use cases we analyzed",
  "method": "Modelled estimate across 63 use cases in 16 business functions, using a proprietary McKinsey database and input from more than 100 experts; not a measurement.",
  "drift": [
    "Type: 'could add' (potential, if fully adopted) often repeated as 'will add'",
    "Range: the top of the range ($4.4T) is quoted without the bottom"
  ],
  "interest": "McKinsey sells AI and digital-transformation consulting (QuantumBlack).",
  "safe_rephrasing": "McKinsey estimated in 2023 that generative AI could add $2.6–4.4 trillion a year across 63 use cases if they were fully adopted; it is a modelled potential, not a forecast of what will happen.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "McKinsey — The economic potential of generative AI (2023)",
      "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-economic-potential-of-generative-ai-the-next-productivity-frontier",
      "primary": true
    }
  ],
  "kind": "stat_check",
  "as_of": "Estimate published June 14, 2023, based on the 2022 economy",
  "last_checked": "2026-10-16",
  "stale": false,
  "date_reviewed": "2026-10-16",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
}